The Dunning-Kruger effect

You may have witnessed this scene at work, while socialising with friends, or over a holiday dinner with extended family perhaps, where there was someone who had very little knowledge on a subject but claimed to know everything. That person might even boast about being an expert.

This phenomenon is nothing new and has a name: The Dunning-Kruger effect. It’s not a disease, syndrome, or mental illness. It is to an extent, part of being human.  This phenomenon is known since the beginning of human existence and has only received attention through recent studies and documentation.

In a paper, published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, (1991) David Dunning and Justin Kruger verified statements of philosophers such as Socrates and Plato, stating:  the only true wisdom is knowing you know nothing.

Charles Darwin (1871) was of the opinion that ignorance more frequently begets confidence than knowledge. Put simply, incompetent people think they know more than they really do and they tend to be more boastful about it.

Dunning, in particular, was shocked by these results, even though they confirmed his hypothesis.  Time after time, regardless of the subject, those least likely to know what they were talking about, strongly believed they knew as much if not more, than the experts.

What happens when incompetent people are unwilling to admit their shortcomings? Are they so confident in their own perceived knowledge that they will reject any ideas for learning and improving themselves? Not surprisingly (though no less concerning), Dunning’s follow-up research showed that the poorest performers are also the least likely to accept criticism or show interest in self-improvement.

The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which unskilled people make poor decisions and reach erroneous conclusions, but their incompetence denies them the ability to recognise their own lacks and mistakes. The unskilled therefore suffer from a form of illusory superiority, rating their own ability as above average, much higher than it actually is.  On the other hand, the highly skilled underrate their own abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority.

People who pretend on social media that they are experts are usually not the experts they pretend to be. Sometimes the educated person just doesn’t want to defend their knowledge, even if they are a master in that particular field.

What is the Dunning-Kruger effect really?

The Dunning-Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which people of low ability have illusory superiority and mistakenly assess their cognitive ability as greater than what it really is. The cognitive bias of illusory superiority originates from the so-called low-ability people to recognise their lack of ability. Without self-awareness, poor performers cannot objectively evaluate their actual competence or incompetence. People of high performance incorrectly assume that tasks that are easy for them are also easy for other people.

High performers are fully aware of the vastness and complexity of the subject they’re working in. They usually underestimate their ability and competence in a specific field. Therefore, the wise always doubt themselves while the uninformed are usually overly assured of themselves.  They even cause people who have knowledge about a particular subject, to doubt themselves!

In contrast to high performers, poor performers do not learn from feedback they receive or suggestions about how to improve themselves, since they believe they know it all.

The ancient Greek philosopher, Plato, commented: I know that I know nothing. Therefore, I know something and that is that I know nothing.  Other people don’t even know that they know nothing!

What the philosophers had to say

Although the Dunning–Kruger effect was formulated in 1999, the cognitive bias of illusory superiority has been known throughout history and identified by intellectuals, such as:

• the philosopher Confucius (551–479 BC), said: real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s own ignorance;
• the philosopher Socrates (470–399 BC), who interpreted a prophecy from the Delphic oracle that he was wise despite feeling that he did not fully understand anything, as the wisdom of being aware that he knew nothing;
• the playwright William Shakespeare (1564–1616), is of the opinion that the fool doth think he is wise, but the wise man knows himself to be a fool;
• the poet Alexander Pope (1688–1744) wrote in An Essay on Criticism, 1709: A little learning is a dangerous thing;
• the naturalist Charles Darwin (1809–1882) postulated: ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge;
• the philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche (1844–1900) wrote in his essay: Human, All Too Human (aphorism 483): the Enemies of Truth — Convictions are more dangerous enemies of truth than lies;
• the philosopher and mathematician Bertrand Russell (1872–1970), claimed: one of the painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty, are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding, are filled with doubt and indecision.

Scientific studies

The psychological phenomenon of illusionary superiority was identified as a form of cognitive bias in Kruger and Dunning’s 1999 study: Unskilled and unaware of it: how difficulties in recognising one’s own incompetence result to inflated self-assessments.

The identification derived from the cognitive bias evident in the criminal case of McArthur Wheeler, who robbed banks with his face covered in lemon juice. He believed it would make him invisible to the surveillance cameras. This belief was based on his misunderstanding of the chemical properties of lemon juice as an invisible ink.

Dunning and Kruger tested the hypothesis of the cognitive bias of illusion superiority on undergraduate psychology students. After learning the students’ self-assessment scores, the students were asked to evaluate their own competence. The outcome was as follow:

• the students who were more competent, judged and estimated themselves far below their own abilities;
• the group of incompetent students overestimated themselves and their competencies;
• competent students were also inclined to underestimate their own competence, because they erroneously assumed that tasks easy for them to perform were also easy for other people to perform.

Why less competent people have more self confidence

The Dunning-Kruger Effect is not only observable in an academic context.  It can be witnessed in almost every subject, field and situation. It can be found in every aspect of life:

• organisations tend to hire the most confident person during an interview, but it often turns out that the chosen person is also the least competent;
• another good example is one of celebrities who think they’re smart being in the spotlight while scientists who made world-changing discoveries get no media coverage;
• your friend who claims to be a good driver or a great chess player, is usually the least skilled;
• a total idiot marries a highly competent woman but controls her whole life.

The burning question is: why are the least competent people usually the most confident ones?

We had a friend at our university residence who always criticised our girlfriends, though he himself never had a girlfriend. He possessed the ability to effortlessly win any argument, regardless his opponents. Yet, with all his knowledge and superiority, he never obtained his degree.

The most incompetent person often overestimates their ability since they have no idea how much they don’t know. In other words: poor performers believe they know everything about a particular topic and therefore they tend to be overconfident about it. If you don’t know what you don’t know, you will not even know it!

Real knowledge is to know the extent of one’s ignorance.

How to recognise a self-appointed specialist

According to Wikipedia, a self-proclaimed expert will:

• tend to overestimate their own level of skill;
• fail to recognise genuine skills in others;
• fail to recognise the extremity of their inadequacy; and
• degrade competent people (due to their own jealousy)

Those who are really informed and who really know their field of expertise, are considerably modest when compared to those who have a fraction of their experience and knowledge, mostly acquired by word of mouth.

You can just allow your work-code and achievements do the talking, and, if you genuinely deserve the label, others will be more than happy to assign it to you. Such is the way to achieve expert status. It is given… not proclaimed.

Conclusion

I’ll leave you with the following thoughts:

One of the most painful things about our time is that those who feel certainty are stupid, and those with any imagination and understanding are filled with doubt and indecision – Bertrand Russell

When someone makes you believe that you are stupid and unkind you may, instead of defending or trying to prove yourself, realise that this is their own sense of incompetence.  Moreover, this matter has nothing to do with you and that you have no need to even respond to it.

People can only gauge the impact of their words by observing your reaction.  If you remain unresponsive, they will never truly know the impact of their words on you.